Ab de Buck & Caspar ten Dam
30 September 2022, Dordrecht, the Netherlands
Also in Bosnia, in the middle of Europe, Russian President Putin is engaged in a policy divide and rule, of sowing division. Elections will be held in Bosnia on October 3. Alas there is a good chance that extremist politicians among Bosnian Serbs, Bosnian Croats and other ethnic communities will gain crucial positions through these elections with his support. It can lead to division of the country and violence against other ethnic groups such as Bosnian Muslims (who have good reasons to prefer to call themselves Bosniaks). The European Union has capacities and opportunities to intervene, but now tends to allow dire developments to run their course. We believe that the Netherlands, being one of the most involved EU member states, should insist on a much more alert and forceful policy from the EU. Bosnia’s current constitution, too much based on ethnicity, should be replaced by a truly democratic and civic, non-ethnic constitution based on ‘one man one vote’.
Elections in Bosnia
Ethnic nationalist politicians threaten to regain a strong position in the upcoming elections in Bosnia. If so, this will lead to further stagnation in the country. In fact, Bosnian-Serb politicians are openly working towards splitting up the country by seceding ‘their’ entity, the so-called Republic of Srpska from it. It is to be expected that non-Serb minorities within ‘their’ area will then be bullied and chased away. Extremist Bosnian Croats are sawing at Bosnia’s legs too. Alarming, perilous developments that could lead to a fragmented, even disintegrated Bosnia, brutal violence and refugee flows. The vast majority of the Bosnian population – even within Srpska (a hopeful sign) – wants stability and a connection with Europe. But the ethnic division confirmed and sustained by the Dayton peace accord – one of its gravest weaknesses, despite helping to end the 1992-1995 war – gives politicians an easy opportunity to play their nationalistic cards.
The Dayton Agreement was reached in 1995 under pressure from the international community and – credit where credit is due – ended the war. Since then, the country has been split into two entities, the Federation and Srpska. In the last part, Bosnian Serbs generally hold the positions of power. Above the two federations, there is a ‘High Representative’ installed by the Dayton Agreement who oversees the stability and development of the country on behalf of the international community. This complicated structure has led to a political stalemate for years however, which has disrupted Bosnian society. The constitution is also discriminatory at its core: if you are Jewish or Sinti, for example, you cannot become the country’s President. The same restriction applies if you do not want to be placed in one of the three ethnic ‘boxes’ (Bosniak, Serbian, Croatian). Consequently many young people see no future and leave the country as soon as they get the chance.
The problem is amplified by foreign interference. Last week, the Bosnian-Serb leader Milorad Dodik visited Russia’s President Vladimir Putin: a cordial meeting it was! They agreed, among other things, that Srpska will get preferential access to the Russian gas network. Three other European countries support these extremist politicians too, mainly because they are led by such politicians themselves: Serbia, Croatia and Hungary.
EU holds the keys
Even so, there are plenty of opportunities to intervene. Primarily the European Union (EU) holds the vital keys to open the doors to a Bosnia with a future. Firstly, ever since its inception the position of High Representative has been held by a citizen from an EU country; at the moment it is held by the German Christian Schmidt. He has the power to fire politicians who do not abide by the Dayton Agreement. To date however, Schmidt, does not make use of this power. Instead, he recently came up with proposals to restructure Bosnia’s electoral law even more along ethnic lines than it does now. Secondly, Europe leads the EUFOR peacekeeping force. This can intervene in the event of escalation and violence. However, the force is currently below strength: instead of the required 7,000 troops it had once before, a mere 1,500 peacekeepers are present on the ground. The Netherlands promised in June to contribute more troops to EUFOR, but those extra Dutch soldiers are still not there.
Wat is needed?
It is therefore up to the EU to put Bosnia on the path of stability, peace and a future. The Netherlands can play an important role in this. In recent years, the Netherlands has positioned itself as a friend of Bosnia. It played a vital facilitating role in the arrest and trial of the Bosnian-Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and Ratko Mladic in The Hague. We have given a lot of humanitarian aid as well. But now something more fundamental is needed; a focused effort to turn Bosnia into a truly democratic state that can develop itself positively. Needed are:
- Press the High Representative in Bosnia to actually fire extremist politicians. There should be no place in Bosnia for politicians who collaborate with authoritarian leaders like Putin and seek to blow up the Bosnian state. And the High Representative is completely on the wrong track if he truly seeks to make Bosnia’s electoral law more ethnic-exclusivist and thereby less democratic.
- Bring the existing EUFOR force back to at least the original 7,000 manpower strength. The Netherlands has promised to contribute to this increase in manpower. It is crucial that this happens quickly. After all, bad things can happen quite suddenly, such as a declaration of independence by Srpska. Then EUFOR force must be ready to quell any violence.
- Commitment at the International Court of Justice to declare the Dayton Agreement invalid and to take steps towards a new, truly democratic Bosnian constitution.
The situation in Bosnia is complex. But the Netherlands can certainly help to deal with the complexities there, and help prevent or stifle any dangers emanating from these complexities. We have a long and special relationship with Bosnia – also because of the tragedy in Srebrenica. We have every interest in keeping peace and stability in Bosnia. The Netherlands must now make its voice heard in Brussels.
Caspar ten Dam and Ab de Buck, board members of CHI, have contributed since 1996 to the organisation of the annual commemoration of the fall of Srebrenica on 11th of July in The Hague. [1]
[1] As board members of the former Political Committee Stari Most (PCSM); see http://starimost.nl (in Dutch).