What kind of effects does the amendment of the Bosnian electoral law by the High Representative has regarding to the election results concerning the allocation of seats in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina?

Alden Pervan & Ab de Buck   October 20, 2022

This memo provides information about the reforms of the Electoral Act as implemented by High Representative Christian Schmidt (hereinafter: Schmidt) on the night of the election (2 October 2022). After the polling stations closed at 7 p.m., Schmidt announced at 9 p.m. the electoral adjustments for the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (hereinafter: FBiH). Schmidt’s adjustment has direct effects on:

1. The allocation of seats in the cantons
2. The composition of the ‘House of People’
3. The choice of president and vice president

We explain this more detailed below. We also make a comparison with the situation in Republika Srpska and discuss the consequences of the adjustment.

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Ab de Buck & Caspar ten Dam

4 October 2022, Dordrecht, the Netherlands 

Somewhat to our surprise and relief, the elections in Bosnia on October 2 have yielded gains for politicians who stand for innovation and solutions across ethnic lines. However, this encouraging outcome is overshadowed by a misguided, even scandalous intervention by the High Representative, who oversees Bosnia on behalf of the international community. At the last minute, on election night (!), he introduced an amendment to the electoral law that strengthens the position of a Bosnian-Croat ethno-nationalist party, with support from Croatia.

This erroneous decision and behaviour by the High Representative could contribute to further stagnation in Bosnia and increase the risk of secession, by Bosnian-Croat and/or Bosnian-Serb nationalists in particular. This danger underlines the urgent need to replace Bosnia’s current constitution, which is too much based on ethnicity, with a truly democratic constitution based on citizenship and the ‘one man, one woman, one vote’ principle.

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Ab de Buck & Caspar ten Dam

30 September 2022, Dordrecht, the Netherlands 

Also in Bosnia, in the middle of Europe, Russian President Putin is engaged in a policy divide and rule, of sowing division. Elections will be held in Bosnia on October 3. Alas there is a good chance that extremist politicians among Bosnian Serbs, Bosnian Croats and other ethnic communities will gain crucial positions through these elections with his support. It can lead to division of the country and violence against other ethnic groups such as Bosnian Muslims (who have good reasons to prefer to call themselves Bosniaks). The European Union has capacities and opportunities to intervene, but now tends to allow dire developments to run their course. We believe that the Netherlands, being one of the most involved EU member states, should insist on a much more alert and forceful policy from the EU. Bosnia’s current constitution, too much based on ethnicity, should be replaced by a truly democratic and civic, non-ethnic constitution based on ‘one man one vote’.

Elections in Bosnia

Ethnic nationalist politicians threaten to regain a strong position in the upcoming elections in Bosnia. If so, this will lead to further stagnation in the country. In fact, Bosnian-Serb politicians are openly working towards splitting up the country by seceding ‘their’ entity, the so-called Republic of Srpska from it. It is to be expected that non-Serb minorities within ‘their’ area will then be bullied and chased away. Extremist Bosnian Croats are sawing at Bosnia’s legs too. Alarming, perilous developments that could lead to a fragmented, even disintegrated Bosnia, brutal violence and refugee flows. The vast majority of the Bosnian population – even within Srpska (a hopeful sign) – wants stability and a connection with Europe. But the ethnic division confirmed and sustained by the Dayton peace accord – one of its gravest weaknesses, despite helping to end the 1992-1995 war – gives politicians an easy opportunity to play their nationalistic cards.

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